As Halloween approaches, and Trick or Treat season becomes the focal point, reflecting on West Brom’s October performances, it seems for many, we have been tricked more often than treated…
On paper, it was a fairly reasonable run of games, truncated by an international window, resulting in five games, one goal scored and just four points gained.
Perhaps the only tenuous positive is being on a current four match unbeaten run.
Therein lies the truth and for some, the appeal of The Championship.
A division where promoted teams may survive and all teams have a modicum of hope, due to the overall leveling of the standard from top to bottom.
Meritocracy or mediocrity?
After twelve games, only two teams have won more than half of their games, and when you look at the statistics, one of those two teams, Sheffield Utd, have scored only one more goal than West Brom this season, suggesting, like us, narrow victories and defensive acumen first.
A division where drawn games reigns supreme.
Of course, this month was the anniversary 0f the second year of the Corberan reign, from the embers of chaotic management under the Bruce regime and 24th place, Carlos has lifted the club to the playoffs last season, and currently the same 5th place.
A divisional position we would have bitten the arm, less the hand, if we were offered this scenario in 2022.
If you had to characterize West Brom in the Corberan years, you’d have to surmise we are a team homed in on defensive stability, shaped by an organizational mantra through methodology and repetition.
However, when you look at the statistics for October, we actually had 64 attempts on goal over those five games, but only Karlan Grant’s beautifully drilled shot at Oxford actually troubled the scorers.
It’s informative to compare looking at runaway leaders Sunderland’s goal scoring statistics for October.
Incredibly, compared to us, Sunderland had TEN less attempts at goal, but scored EIGHT more goals and gleaned ELEVEN more points.
Take your opportunities behind a solid defence, good things generally happen.
Certainly, defensively, we have been solid, as all Corberan teams tend to be, but familiarity and understanding are huge components that are about to be tested fully and may well expose how deep our squad actually is.
The Carlos core four of Furlong, Bartley, Ajayi and Heggem, will certainly not be seen again for some time, with the seemingly inevitable injuries and absences to both Bartley and Ajayi occurring yet again.
Bartley’s meniscus injury is the type that can be cleared up relatively easily, but will invoke a six week, seven game absence.
Bartley’s leadership role is bound to be much missed, and creates a vacuum of responsibility, with club captain Jed Wallace’s on the pitch influence as diminished as his minutes seemingly are now, sadly a perennial substitute, given only late game cameo roles.
The recent two-year contract extension to the latest Baggies skipper, Darnell Furlong, was deserved on effort and application over his time as a Baggie.
Fitness and availability count as well.
Furlong has only missed 11 of the last 150 Championship games since the start of the 2021/22 season, and it’s not his injuries, but his disciplinary record that has cost him games, accruing a remarkably high 29 yellow cards and 2 red cards in that three season and three-month window.
I’m confident, possible captain number 4, Alex Mowatt, the last cog in Corberan’s astute philosophy, to have a player leadership core group, will inevitably take the arm band sometime in the future.
Semi Ajayi, in his sixth season at West Brom, really offers no surprises, timely interceptions, undoubted athleticism, mixed with some curious defensive decision making, his hamstring injury resulting from an ill-informed dribble and attempt to win back possession was atypical of the mixed bag he brings to his central defensive role…
Therefore, the signing of experienced defensive cover was prudent, even as short term as the Paddy McNair signing was always going to be, as a warm winter in San Diego awaits when he leaves in January for the MLS season beginning in March.
Despite an encouraging Baggies full debut for McNair, the consideration of age will always be inherent with risk, as anyone who saw Matt Phillips sitting in the Oxford Utd stadium, to nobody’s great surprise, would readily attest to.
McNair’s second, and I frankly assume, last WBA game, expired after four minutes, inevitably inheriting the injury of an ever-growing litany of fallen Baggies over the years, the hamstring tear.
A real shame as McNair looked composed and an intelligent, classy defender….
Therein lies the question and at times the demand, many Baggies supporters have been asking, Tojbjorn Heggem is not best disposed as a left back, but should be a central defender.
For me, rather than pigeonhole any player, let's just luxuriate in the fact, we’ve got a tall, left sided defender comfortable in both roles, something we’ve replicated over the last dozen years, with the performances of Jonny Evans and at times Liam Ridgewell.
Heggem, athletically and technically looked the part for West Brom from the get-go, and his rise from the depths of the Allsvenskan, last season, to being a teammate of Erling Haaland, in the Norwegian National team, in just under three months, is so admirable.
The only certainty for a squad, with a glut of injuries is it becomes an inevitable opportunity, as we saw v Cardiff City with 86 Minutes of Callum Styles as an emergency left back.
It was a role Styles took with characteristic effort, but he looked as expected, a midfielder filling in, and judging from some woeful crossing, and questionable positional play, plus lack of height for a defender on back post balls, a role that may not be replicated.
We were all very excited by the signings in the August window, but the impact, two months later, has been mixed.
A pair of those August loanees, Mason Holgate and Gianluca Frabotta, both dropping a division to join us, will now be given, I assume, key roles in this challenging run of games ahead in November.
Considering defensively, of the core group from last season’s Championship season, Furlong 46 games, Townsend 42 games, Kipre 44 games, even Bartley with 36 games, and the early stability this season, adjusting to two new components and one positional change, is going to be a real challenge for Corberan and in many ways November will be our month of truth.
For the squad and how good our recruitment actually was??
I’ve argued all season, that Alex Mowatt is our most important player, consistency personified, who keeps the team's collective rhythm ticking over, whether prompting from central midfield or being central in a back three, that seems Carlos’s preferred way of initiating possession from deep and allowing Furlong and Heggem to push on.
It’s no accident, both full backs had great opportunities to score in open play the last three games, and it’s an adjustment in the formation that permits a free reign for wide defenders to exploit.
The currency for such ambition is of course finishing those chances and the misses are maximized by the lack of goals elsewhere in the team.
Mowatt’s place, deservedly, is set in stone, partnered by Molumby’s undoubted energy and commitment, or Racic’s technical excellence and improved fitness…
Could all three play, with Racic pushed on further forward??
Racic’s previous statistics with other clubs paints a less than rosy future for that role, despite getting into some great attacking positions, more often than not, not testing the keeper, but the air above the crossbar.
Undoubtedly, creation is often the role of wingers and the free role that a No.10 should exploit, and no doubt both areas have been lacking in terms of impact.
Young players always tend to have dips in form, and Tom Fellows is certainly going through that scenario, on the opposite side, Karlan Grant’s energy, fitness, and finishing have been a breath of fresh air.
One of the wonderful vagaries of football is how things can change SO quickly?
Ask any Baggies fan pre-season, if they would prefer a return of Mikey Johnston or Karlan Grant on the left side of midfield and the overwhelming majority would have plumped for the Irishman.
Yet it’s been Grant’s selection on merit, to such a degree that when he’s missing, there is a definite weakening of work rate and goal threat.
Truly remarkable.
Johnston looks to me a talented but streaky player, who when he is on, impacts, as he did in his opening spell with us, but since ending his 16-year Celtic attachment permanently, he has struggled, particularly in home games where teams have sat deep, played zonal defence and blocked attacking lanes with overloads.
Confidence is everything with a player like Mikey, the sooner he makes a positive contribution, the bigger his impact will be, but Grant is simply a selection on merit.
To have a ‘lone’ striker, and it really is a ‘striker alone’ for Maja, as Devante Cole has seemingly been judged superfluous to being trusted, despite the need for an attacking alternative to give Josh an overdue rest.
But the month of October was fallow for Maja compared to the early season feast in the form of seven goals in seven games.
For me, Maja has increasingly played deeper to initiate moves, sometimes in his own half, and although he is an intelligent leader of the line, we often have few runners from midfield, so the attacking threat ends with him.
You simply cannot have one player in a team, taking on the most difficult and physical role of lone striker, for a season as long and arduous as The Championship.
Fatigue, muscle injuries or being a recipient of an overtly aggressive tackle are part and parcel of the risk of overplaying your striker, but unless Daryl Dike can come back and have a sustained run in the team, it’s hard to see what options Carlos is confident with?
The lack of an attacking and creative presence from central areas, to take some of the weight and pressure off the lone striker is a key reason for our lack of fluency and threat.
Both occupants of that No.10 role, Jon Swift and Grady Diangana haven’t impacted to any degree that is needed to sustain a promotion push.
Twelve games in.
Peripheral performances, yes.
Goals or assists, no.
Add the lack of impact of goals from set pieces, for a club who held the record number of goals in the Premier League from corners for seven seasons, until it was broken by Arsenal last season, is even more galling…
Post Halloween night and the advent of November sees 18 points up for grabs.
Four away games, where we arguably play better football than at The Hawthorns, home teams ordinarily show more ambition, allowing for more space and fluency for us to counterattack from deep. Just two home games…
On paper it is by far our hardest month so far, at home, two potential promotion contenders in Burnley, Norwich runaway leaders Sunderland away with a further trio of tough trips to Luton, Preston and Hull.
Our new look central defence will be thrown straight in the deep end, attempting to stop the aerial threat of Luton’s Elijah Adebayo, and will need to gel quickly, particularly if our October attacking woes and lack of production is replicated.
At the end of August, as a fan base we were jubilant that a deep, talented squad had perhaps been assembled…
In November, we’ll see if that statement could be deemed to be true or false.
It won’t be easy.